"Land steel" limited future steel market where to go from here?

This Friday is June 30 is the deadline for banning steel, so now the completion of the task of the steel is how to do it? It is understood that as of the end of May this year, the country has reduced crude steel production capacity of 42.39 million tons , Completed 84.8% of the annual target mission, out of coal production capacity of 97 million tons, to complete the annual target task of 65%.

And the last week is precisely the most critical week to remove the task of the week, according to the relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission to understand the current situation at the provincial report has not yet formed the final results, because there are less than a week, a week later The specific data to the production capacity also need further verification, so until the beginning of July will have the relevant task to complete the data report. Although the data will be late, but the market response to this message has long been reflected.

Specifically, the off-season in June is not short, on the Tangshan Steel City, the low season in the Tangshan Steel City has shown a more strong posture, billet continued to rise this month, June 1, billet factory tax The price of 3090 yuan / ton, and came to June 26, billet prices have risen to 3220 yuan / ton factory tax. Tang Gangbang steel market has always been a barometer, which we can see that the trend of the steel market for the majority of promising.

For the raw material billet, one is the early billet continued to pull up, the price is higher, the downstream products into the poor turnover, but for the billet, the terminal bullish, more active transactions, market inventory resources are more tense, also caused , Some traders for straight billet price increases the phenomenon of procurement, resulting in high billet prices.

Second, for the bargain to curb the news of excessive speculation, part of the steel took the opportunity to pull up, for the formation of certain prices to support the market, the market sentiment is also more high-pitched, so the steel prices do not fall in the off-season, July guidance point of view, Guofeng c in July guidance price of 3600 yuan / ton, Han Xing area in July guidance price of 3700 yuan / ton, compared with last month raised about 200 yuan / ton, reflecting the steel mills on Next month steel market with positive attitude.

In the short term, the market is still likely to continue this wave rise, up space in 100 yuan / ton.

In the end what factors will affect the market

First, the demand level. January-May both real estate and infrastructure investment growth both fall, combined with the hot season in June, the overall terminal demand is relatively low. July is still the traditional consumer off-season, real estate investment in the trend of the downward trend, the overall demand for the situation is difficult to significantly change. However, the recent State Council and Development and Reform Commission have been on the shed and railway construction to deploy the third quarter of the shed and rail construction is expected to accelerate the demand for domestic steel market will continue to form a certain boost. Is expected next month, domestic steel market demand or a slight rebound in the low.

Second, the supply level. May by the strip of steel to clean up and rectification and along the way during the meeting limited the impact of steel mills, the domestic steel production capacity is suppressed, the market supply pressure has also been reduced. In early June, the average daily production of crude steel was significantly higher, indicating that the steel plant by high profits to stimulate the resumption of production to speed up. Coupled with the resumption of production of some electric furnace steel, pre-market shortage of resource specifications significantly alleviated the phenomenon. However, in the traditional consumption of off-season market and steel inventories did not show a significant accumulation, especially this week, social inventories and steel inventories are fully down, or show the current market supply and demand situation as a whole is still good. In addition, the plate price trend is significantly stronger than the building materials this month, part of the early conversion of steel mills will gradually return the molten iron to the plate, will help reduce the supply of building materials market pressure.

Third, the cost factor. June domestic steel prices fell sharply, while imports of ore prices rose, coal prices fell after the first rise, steel companies profit from the high down significantly. The current iron ore supply as a whole loose, but the mainstream ore resources are tight and mainly concentrated in the hands of a small number of large, strong support for the formation of iron ore prices. With several major domestic coking coal enterprises to cut production plans, as well as steel mills to increase the library, coal prices tend to be strong. While the current steel orders and financial pressure as a whole is not, very price will be strong. Expected next month the overall cost will rise slightly.

Fourth, the macro level. 1 - April a number of economic indicators growth rate down, making the market once the second quarter and the second half of the economic trend is generally pessimistic. May economic data in addition to investment continued to fall, the import and export, industrial added value, industrial profits and other economic data are expected, in June manufacturing PMI is a sharp rebound in the off-season, showing the overall performance of the domestic economy is still stable, Pessimistic expectations are gradually being repaired. In addition, the market funds in June did not appear in the expected tension, the central bank open market operation more accurate, in July with the elimination of half-year factors, the funds are expected to stabilize loose.

So, the steel market outlook will run what will happen

To the production capacity and environmental protection supervision will be through the steel market in 2017, the policy of the city, fluctuations, opportunities will be the main features of the market, the impact of financial capital on the steel market will become increasingly strong, Large spot market shocks?

In the first quarter, the steel market in the ultra-expected out of the "roller coaster" market, successive "face" investors to judge, but the steel market, the performance of the major varieties are still some differences? The report that the market after the Spring Festival showed a clear (Plate) strong plate (material) weak, plate (material) strong roll (plate) weak, hot (rolling) strong cold (rolling) weak pattern, the reaction is strong banned steel, plate production rapid growth The market structure

The report said that to the production capacity and banned steel to strengthen the construction of steel products such as long products, tight supply expectations, is the main driving force for the performance of steel construction. While the plate production growth, on the one hand by the impact of pre-profit situation, especially in the fourth quarter of last year, a larger increase in sheet products, profit levels higher than the construction of steel, so that some steel mills to reduce the construction of steel products to meet the production; Capacity factors on different enterprises have different effects, to undertake the task of overcapacity of small and medium-sized steel mills and backward production enterprises are mostly building steel, plate less affected, coupled with the demand side, plate demand itself is more stable than the construction of steel?

Analysis is expected to go to production capacity, environmental protection supervision will run through the year 2017, especially in Beijing and Tianjin and the surrounding areas, steel mills, coking enterprises will be greatly affected, environmental protection or into a normal state, but in the demand side , With the frequent trade frictions, export resistance is also increasing, is expected under the influence of supply and demand and other factors, 2017 crude steel production of 790 million tons, you can achieve a basic balance of market supply and demand?

The report shows that the 2017 steel market demand side of a major bright spot may be the circulation of the company's inventory? Data show that since the beginning of the market in 2013 to inventory, the major varieties of domestic steel stocks continued to decline in 2016, the average market inventory fell to The lowest level in 2010? "Circulation companies, especially large enterprises have a certain demand for inventory, will lead to increased demand for intermediate, but the low inventory of operating habits and changes in steel sales, make up the strength of the stock may also be limited? "Report that?